Over the weekend, the United States and Israel launched coordinated military strikes on Iran. If you are wondering what this means for your investments, here is what we know so far.
On 28 February 2026, the United States and Israel launched coordinated military strikes against Iran (Operation Epic Fury), targeting military, nuclear, and political infrastructure. This marks a significant military escalation in the Middle East.
Iran has responded with retaliatory strikes against Israel and US military installations across the Gulf region. Iran’s Revolutionary Guard has issued warnings restricting passage through the Strait of Hormuz, and tanker traffic has effectively halted.
Around one fifth of the world’s oil and gas passes through the Strait. A stand still will push energy prices higher, at least in the short-term. Markets are entering the week cautiously. In the event of further escalation, we expect safe-haven assets such as U.S. Treasuries, gold, the US Dollar and Swiss Franc to outperform, while equities and risk-sensitive currencies face pressure.
It is important to emphasise that this is very early in a rapidly unfolding and highly fluid situation. Events are evolving by the hour, and the range of possible outcomes remains exceptionally wide.
At this early juncture we foresee three possible scenarios.
US and allied naval escorts secure the Strait of Hormuz within days. Tanker traffic resumes. Conflict remains contained to air operations with a ceasefire pathway emerging. Oil settles in the USD $75–85 range. Any equity dip proves short-lived, consistent with historical patterns where geopolitical flare-ups create temporary selloffs rather than sustained bear markets.
Military operations continue for weeks. Hormuz shipping remains impaired by insurance costs and security risks. Oil sustains in the USD $80–100 range. Equity markets correct 5–10%. Credit spreads widen materially. Central banks face uncomfortable trade-offs between inflation and growth. A fresh inflationary impulse raises stagflation risk in an economy already showing signs of strain.
Iran effectively closes the Strait of Hormuz through mines, missiles, or direct attacks on tankers. Gulf state infrastructure is targeted. Oil spikes above USD $100–120. Global recession risk rises sharply. Asian economies face acute energy security crises. This scenario would constitute a severe and sustained supply shock with substantial consequences for global growth.
Findex portfolios are well positioned heading into this period of uncertainty. We maintain healthy levels of liquidity across our portfolios. This provides protection during short-term volatility and allows us to invest quickly when attractive opportunities arise. In times when other investors may be forced to sell, we are in a strong position to step in and buy quality assets at better prices.
Our portfolios are broadly diversified across asset classes, geographies, and sectors, which limits concentration risk to any single outcome. This diversification is designed precisely for periods like this, where the range of scenarios is wide and conviction on any single path is premature.
The Findex investment team and Investment Committee are actively monitoring developments and will continue to do so as the situation evolves. We will provide further updates as greater clarity emerges on the trajectory of the conflict and its implications for markets and the broader economy.
In the meantime, we encourage all investors to maintain perspective. It is very early days in this unfolding situation. The decisions made in the coming days and weeks, both geopolitical and within portfolios, will be guided by discipline, evidence, and our commitment to long-term outcomes.
This document is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. The views expressed are those of the author as of the date indicated and are subject to change without notice. All investments carry risk, including the potential loss of principal. This document is confidential and intended solely for the use of the intended recipient(s).
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