Wine sector outlook: evolving strategies needed as wine consumption changes

Changing consumer behaviour is reshaping the drinks landscape. Modern wine drinking is becoming more intentional and experience led. Many consumers are choosing quality, discovery and occasion over quantity.

As purchasing patterns shift, the category is evolving, with consumers increasingly favouring more distinctive wines, while others seek approachable, unpretentious options.

Industry evolution and long-term opportunity

While change is inevitable, wine has stood the test of time and continues to evolve with its consumers. New Zealand’s viticulture industry has a strong foundation to adapt, with an opportunity to build a more durable value proposition by understanding and responding to shifting consumer preferences.

The challenges facing the wine industry

The wine industry is in the midst of one of the most difficult periods in its modern history, with global consumption softening in key export markets, some oversupply placing pressure on prices, and production costs rising faster than consumers are willing to pay.

For New Zealand, which exports nearly 75% of its production, there are direct and immediate challenges. It’s operating in an increasingly competitive global market where producers are all working to capture demand. Buyers have more choice, more leverage, and less urgency. Changing demand can become a compounding issue, with misaligned supply contributing to a build-up of inventory.

Rising production pressures are being felt across the sector, with higher labour costs driven by shortages and increased input costs for fertiliser, fuel, packaging and freight, alongside higher insurance and finance costs globally. For many growers, margins have tightened significantly, with some now on very slim returns. Even larger-scale operators are adapting, as previous scale advantages are being rebalanced in the current environment.

Adapting to remain resilient

In the face of these challenges, action is necessary. successful wineries are adapting by investing in infrastructure, premiumising their offerings, and embracing direct-to-consumer models, where smaller scale operations are offset by stronger customer relationships and a more personalised value proposition.

Local wineries have strengths they can play to: New Zealand’s reputation as a premium producer of quality produce, as well as its sustainability credentials, are crucial components in brand building and storytelling. Precision methods leveraging technology across the supply chain - from production to marketing and customer experience - may well define the winners.

Farmers have carved out success through their resourcefulness and adaptability, characteristics now more necessary than ever.

We’re seeing growers experimenting with new varieties, adopting regenerative practices to improve soil resilience, investing in precision viticulture to reduce inputs, and building direct-to-consumer channels to reclaim margin, often using data and now AI as paths to continued profitability in constrained markets.

Focus, clarity and understanding the customer

Businesses achieving success are those actively reviewing their strategies to align with new generations of consumers, who are making different dietary and lifestyle choices. Rather than trying to appeal to everyone, these businesses are taking a more focused approach, clearly defining who their customers are and concentrating their efforts on them. You can’t be everything to everyone anymore.

Many of these clients are now investing around 60% of their marketing budgets into brand building, recognising that success is increasingly driven by identity, purpose and story, rather than product alone.

It’s about the logo, the why, sustainability and the story behind the wine. Customers who trust the brand are buying into the winemaker’s legitimate and compelling story, not just a bottle on the shelf.

The role of advisory support and accountability

One of the most important drivers of positive change is having external advisory support in place, with regular reviews and a strong grasp of the numbers. This level of accountability is what turns strategy into action. When people are engaged, informed and held accountable, that’s when things start to move in the right direction.

Looking ahead with financial discipline and clarity

The trends affecting the industry may prove either transient or more durable, noting that predicting the future always comes with uncertainty. With all that’s going on, the numbers are critically important: cash in, cash out, profitability, and a strong team of operators and advisors. Now more than ever, it is crucial for our vintners to make informed decisions that will support the industry for the long term, whatever shape it may take.

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^{Findex NZ Limited trading as Findex.}

^{The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author/s and do not necessarily reflect the thought or position of Findex.}

^{The title 'Partner' conveys that the person is a senior member within their respective division and is among the group of persons who hold an equity interest (shareholder) in its parent entity, Findex Group Limited. The only professional service offering which is conducted by a partnership is external audit, conducted via the Crowe Australasia external audit division and Unison SMSF Audit. All other professional services offered by Findex Group Limited are conducted by a privately-owned organisation and/or its subsidiaries.}

^{May 2026}